Thursday, July 30, 2009

The writing on the wall

There seems to be an emerging trend on who will hog the limelight over the next few years in Indian politics. This assumes significance as I am expected to follow the day to day developments over the next few years. The old guard is getting ready to bow out and by a decade MMS, LKA and almost all the current big wigs would be well on their way out. That leaves us with rahul Gandhi (& mom), mayawati, varun Gandhi, narendra modi to ride the crest of the wave for the next 2-3 decades.

Rahul Gandhi is almost certain to get a shot at the top. For sometime at least it would be good, primarily cos he would be under the influence/apprenticeship of his mom. With priyanka providing a helping hand, the trio can bring in some stability at the center. At some point of time it will get into his head and hopefully he comes out of it stronger and wiser.

A trend to take in foreign educated politicians seriously has started and this should yield a strong leader or two at some point of time.

The opposition is unorganized for the timing being, not unlike the position Congress was in a decade ago. Sonia’s arrival gradually changed all that & it would be interesting to see who takes the lead in taking head on with the Gandhi family. Writing off the BJP would be foolish as they have a more dedicated support base than the Congress. Arun Jaitely seems to be gearing up for a prominent position within the BJP and there doesn’t seem to be anyone to pose a challenge/threat to his rise.Sushma Swaraj has been strangely quiet for the past few years, although I don’t see any reason why she would not dominate now. Varun Gandhi, in his late 20s, seems to have the aggression to make it, and now he has the opportunity to play some meaningful role in reinventing BJP’s fortune.

Somehow, there seems to be none from the south who has a presence in the national level. I suppose in politicians from South India play a role behind the screens and are not meant to be charismatic leaders. Case in point:PVN. There should be one or two leader’s compromise candidates coming up.

MNS and Thackeray’s in general seem to have run out of ideas. 50 years, I think is the expiry date for an idea like mannos and its decline should continue barring occasional spikes.

I am unable to even vaguely guess what the future of the communist revolution would be. They seem to have a fair presence in the remote areas of 50 districts. For the moment they are mostly dealing with people who have not benefitted from the government policies. For now they have made a point: This situation will change soon and it will be interesting to see when this happens who comes out stronger.

There is a gradual de-escalation of tension between India and Pakistan. The nuclear deterrent seems to have worked effectively. The fact that there was no war declared for the Kargil episode was a boost to diplomacy. Occasional deal breakers like the Mumbai/parliament attacks will happen, but they should die down soon. So, I suppose we have heard the last in terms of wars. The Kashmir dispute has no clear solution and in some 30 years people will have to accept the LOC as the international border, preferably a soft border.

At some point of time in the international arena things will get ugly on energy. A couple of wars with limited engagement should put things into place. As long as there are no equally powerful countries, the conflicts should not last for more than a year.

Unless ofcourse the long awaited apocalypse happens and we are all doomed!

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